Iran: Obama erlaubt Netanjahu den Krieg

Die israelische Tageszeitung "Haaretz" berichtet heute, dass Obama Netanjahu sein Einverständnis für den Krieg gegen den Iran gegeben habe. Mossad und CIA sind sich indes einig, dass der Iran den Bau an der Atombombe bereits 2003 beendet hat.

Der Leitartikel in "Haaretz" stammt von dem bekannten israelischen Journalisten Aluf Benn, der zugleich der Chefredakteur der Zeitung ist. Seit 1993 schreibt er über die israelisch-arabischen Kriege und die Friedensgespräche. Hier schreibt also ein Experte, der seit längerem den Blick hinter die Kulissen hat.

Laut dem Artikel würde Obama  - wie beim Siedlungsbau - öffentlich in der Frage eine gegenläufige Meinung vertreten, insgeheim habe er jedoch zugestimmt. In den israelisch-amerikanischen Beziehungen wurde dies durch "geheime Kanäle" in der Vergangenheit bereits auf gleiche Weise gemacht.

Netanjahu selbst verwies in seiner Rede vor der Knesset, dem israelischen Parlament, am Mittwoch auf drei historische Ereignisse, bei denen eine offizelle amerikanische Anordnung von den Israelis gebrochen wurde: Die Unabhängigkeitserklärung 1948, der Start des Sechstagekriegs 1967 und die Bombardierung irakischer Atomanlagen 1981.

Benn schreibt zu den drei Ereignissen: 

"In 1948, the U.S. State Department, headed by George Marshall, opposed the declaration of independence and supported a United Nations trusteeship for Palestine. But President Truman had other considerations. 

Like Obama today, Truman was also a democratic president contending for his reelection, who needed the support of the Jewish voters and donors. Under those circumstances, Truman rejected Marshall's advice, and listened to his political adviser Clark Clifford, who pressured him to recognize the Zionist state. And indeed, Truman sent a telegram with an official recognition of Israel just 11 minutes after Ben-Gurion finished reading the Scroll of Independence.

(...) In 1967, the official U.S. position called on Israel to hold back and refrain from going to war, but a different message was passing through the secret channels: go "bomb Nasser," reported Levi Eshkol's envoys to Washington, Meir Amit and Avraham Harman. This message tipped the scales in favor of going to war. In 1981, Begin did not bother asking the Americans their opinion before attacking Iraq, but lulled them to sleep and launched a surprise attack. 

In these past incidents, Israel acted against the U.S. position formally, but made sure that the Americans will accept the results of the action and support it in retrospect. And indeed, the U.S. recognized Israel in 1948, allowed it to control the territories annexed in 1967, and made do with weak condemnations of the attack on the Iraq nuclear reactor in 1981."

Der entscheidende Satz, den Netanjahu danach zur Knesset sprach und in dem er die Ergebnisse des Gesprächs nannte, ist der folgende:

"I presented before my hosts the examples that I just noted before you, and I believe that the first objective that I presented – to fortify the recognition of Israel's right to defend itself – I think that objective has been achieved."

Benn schreibt zu dieser Aussage, dass Netanjahu damit andeute, die "stille Zustimmung" von Obama unter dem Deckmantel des scheinbaren Widerstandes erhalten zu haben:

"Netanyahu is hinting that in his Washington visit, he received Obama's tacit approval for an Israeli attack against Iran – under the guise of opposition. Obama will speak out against it but act for it, just as the past U.S. administrations peak against the settlements in the territories but allow their expansion."

Laut Benn setzt Netanjahu darauf, dass Amerika wie in der Vergangenheit die israelische Entscheidung im Nachhinein unterstützt: 

"The lesson was clear: Just as David Ben-Gurion, Levi Eshkol and Menachem Begin said "no" to the White House, Netanyahu also needs not be alarmed by President Obama's opposition to an attack on Iran. Netanyahu believes that, as in the previous incidents, the U.S. may grumble at first, but will then quickly adopt the Israeli position and provide Israel with support and backing in the international community."

Vor seinem Besuch in Washington verzichtete er auf eine deutliche Sprache und machte meist nur Andeutungen in der Öffentlichkeit. Netanjahu versuche nun, die israelische Bevölkerung auf einen Krieg einzuschwören und laut Benn würden die Medien dabei mitziehen. Er schreibt, dass Amos Regev - Chefredakteur der israelischen Zeitung "Hayon" - heute morgen ein enthusiastisches Plädoyer für den Irankrieg auf der Titelseite veröffentlichte:

"Since his return from Washington, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has mainly been preoccupied with one thing: Preparing public opinion for war against Iran.

Netanyahu is attempting to convince the Israeli public that the Iranian threat is a tangible and existential one, and that there is only one effective way to stop it and prevent a "second Holocaust": An Israeli military attack on Iran's nuclear infrastructure, which is buried deep underground.  

(...) Until his trip to Washington, Netanyahu and his supporters in the media refrained from such explicit wording and made do with hints. But since he's been back, Netanyahu has issued an emergency call-up for himself and the Israeli public.  

(...) This morning, the editor-in-chief of the Israel Hayom newspaper, Amos Regev, published on his front page an enthusiastic op-ed in support of a war against Iran. Regev writes what Netanyahu cannot say in his speeches: that we cannot rely on Obama – who wasn't even a mechanic in the armored corps - but only on ourselves. "Difficult, daring, but possible," Regev promised."

"Haaretz" berichtete am 16. März, dass Netanjahu's Kabinett in der Frage des Irankrieges uneinig sei und nannte vier Mitglieder, die gegen den Krieg seien: Der Minister für strategische Angelegenheiten Moshe Ya'alon, der Minister für Nachrichtendienste und Atomfragen Dan Meridor, der Minister ohne Geschäftsbereich Benny Begin und Innenminister Eli Yishai.

"Israel's political leadership remains divided regarding how to react to the Iranian nuclear reactor issue. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak believe that international sanctions will not successfully end Iran's drive to develop nuclear weapons, and support a unilateral Israeli attack; on the other hand, a considerable number of top officials oppose such an attack under the current circumstances, and believe there is time to see whether sanctions will work.

Members of this group of opponents of a unilateral strike includes four members of the inner cabinet of eight - Moshe Ya'alon, Dan Meridor, Benny Begin and Eli Yishai. Finance Minister Yuval Steinitz, a close associate of Netanyahu, continues to sit on the fence, and Foreign Minister Avigor Lieberman's position on the Iranian issue remains a mystery. Many ministers believe that Lieberman has joined the Netanyahu-Barak camp, but the foreign minister has refrained from public comment and in private discussions has expressed support for the sanctions policy."  

In einem weiteren Bericht schreibt "Haaretz", dass das jetzige Raketenabwehrsystem "Iron Drome" schon jetzt gegen Raketen aus dem Gazastreifen sehr wenig ausrichten könne und damit auch nicht gegen iranische Geschosse.

Aluf Benn's Artikel und andere Berichte der Zeitung "Haaretz"  sind ein Alarmsignal an die Öffentlichkeit, gegen diese Entwicklung vorzugehen und zeigen zugleich die Haltung führender Militärs und Nachrichtendienstler auf. Laut New York Times gehen Mossad und CIA davon aus, dass der Iran die Entwicklung von Nuklearwaffen 2003 gestoppt habe. Das Blatt beruft sich auf Offizielle aus Geheimdienstkreisen.

Die New York Times am 17. März:

" 'I’d say that I have about 75 percent confidence in the assessment that they haven’t restarted the program,' said one former senior intelligence official.

(...) 'Their people ask very hard questions, but Mossad does not disagree with the U.S. on the weapons program,' said one former senior American intelligence official, who, like others for this article, would speak only on the condition of anonymity about classified information. “There is not a lot of dispute between the U.S. and Israeli intelligence communities on the facts.”  

(...) And today, despite criticism of that assessment from some outside observers and hawkish politicians, American intelligence analysts still believe that the Iranians have not gotten the go-ahead from Ayatollah Khamenei to revive the program."            

Quellen:

Haaretz: Netanyahu is preparing Israeli public opinion for a war on Iran

Haaretz: Israeli threats of attack sparked new wave of Iran sanctions, officials say

Haaretz: Israel's wake-up call

Irib.ir: Ha’aretz: Obama gab Netanjahu grünes Licht für Angriff auf Iran

New York Times: U.S. Faces a Tricky Task in Assessment of Data on Iran